What Search Trends Mean to the Internet Marketer
If you’re reading this blog, it’s apparent making money online or at least learning about it, is something that’s important to you. So, when it comes to what product to sell…and, what visitors are looking for, we turn to several keys in making this determination. More specifically, the goal is discovering a trend. I want to take a look at several things:
1.) Past products which have peaked and are now declining.
2.) Why these products are declining.
3.) The difference between a trend and a fad.
4.) How search data reflects industry sales.
* I’m going to take a different twist to this than one normally would. When I say products are declining….this means A.) search behavior has changed over the years, and, B.) customers have found more direct resources to achieve their goal. Let’s take a look at a digital product I did some affiliate marketing for back in 2006: ringtones: take a look at the screen shot.
Web searches for ring tones had their highest peek at the end of 2004…and the most recent substantial peek is the end of 2006.
Alright, hard question time again (well, it might actually be a simple one,)…since we’ve seen a steady decline of searches from the end of 2004, does this mean cell phone users are buying less ringtones? Well, there is a direct correlation in terms of Google searches and industry sales. A USA Today article in Janruary of 2006 stated, “In 2005, tones pulled in $600 million, 20% ahead of estimates and more than double the 2004 take.” Doesn’t this data match our graph? Check out a article the New York Post ran in 2006…here’s a quote: “Broadcast Music Inc. (BMI), an organization that collects royalties for song writers and publishers, is forecasting that overall ringtone sales in the US will fall 7 percent in 2008 to approximately $510 million.” They went on to say, “the market peaked in 2006 with sales in the US of $600 million…” I would say this matches our graph almost perfectly. Google is probably the best example to use because they represent the largest “mass of searches” from internet users.
This is not always the case.
Check this out…take a look at another visual example: it shows searches in Google for “web hosting” have steadily declined since 2004…and finally flattening in 2009. On a side note, it’s crazy to think about how that the first the time searches have ever held steady in this industry is 2009! I’m predicting another up-swing once global unemployment numbers fall, and banks start lending to small businesses again. This is what I want you to see: just because searches for web hosting have dropped, does not mean the industry has declined. 
At the same time searches for this term declined…it’s was paralleled with the rise of Big Box domain registration and web hosting firms such as GoDaddy & 1&1. You can’t even pick up a Webmaster catelogue or anything related to computer geeks without seeing an ad from 1&1. The same goes with GoDaddy for mainstream marketing. Just because users arn’t typing in “web hosting,” doesn’t mean users are not buying…they’ve simply been influenced by larger companies who have captured the market share. Keep in mind: search represents more of an exploratory phase of the buying cycle for users. When using search data to determine the strength of an industry, be sure to take into account of all forms of marketing and possibly reasons WHY volume has decreased. How do I know the web hosting industry isn’t declining? Well, I do know web sites are added every day…and for every website there’s a hosting account.
Understanding Fads & Trends
I’m sure we’ve all heard this term before. Our parents may have said, “don’t wear that…it’s just a fad.” Or a fashion site may come out and say…”this is the hottest trend of our time.” The truth is some products are fads, and others are trends. How can we tell the difference? First off, I don’t think the ringtone industry is dead. But you are hearing Candy Shop a lot less in the waiting room these days. Quickly: another fad which could have helped the music industry is users on MySpace playing a song when their profile loads – not giving the user a choice whether they want to hear it. This has faded with the rise of Facebook. Let’s take a look at another fad which was looking like a trend..but quickly fell off the map: croc shoes. Again, take a look at the graph.
In 2006, there were multiple articles about this product “making great strides.” Heck, even the 43rd president of the USA was known to wear them in his down time. After battling a recession, law suites, hospitals banning them (they were widely popular among health care workers), and plant closures…this potential trend is on the decline. Reaching an all time low this year. Will they make a come back? Who knows. I don’t think so – mainly because most of their plants were based in the United States. Outsourcing is always an option…that’s a different topic.
I Want to Make Money Online…What Does This Mean to Me?
If you’re thinking about marketing a product after seeing past success (such as in affiliate marketing)..using tools to spot the rise and fall of trends – if that’s what it is – will be of great benefit. Anyone with a descent level of common sense won’t go and sink a bunch of money into the ringtone industry. However, targeting web hosting, even though it is saturated market, will probably be your best bet. I think industries such as domain names and web hosting are the closest to what the Oricle of Omaha would invest in if he targeted the internet. They arn’t going anywhere and will only continue to grow as long as people are starting websites. I have a feeling we are a long way from reaching the peak of site creation.
Continue to be alert in spotting the rise and fall of trends, and you’ll be far ahead of everyone else in the game.
Great writing! I had suspected as much for some of the niches I am involved in. The internet is like a moving target that you have to keep your focus on.
Thanks for the comment Charles…even though things are moving fast; Stick to what works, and don’t be concerned with always having the “latest and greatest” idea. Good luck.
Thanks for the comment Charles. Even though trends are important – don’t get too caught up in always having the “latest and greatest” idea. It’s important to keep an eye on the industry…without tackling every project. Good luck!
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